We’ve had a bit more volatility these last few weeks. Since reaching that peak on August 1, the market has declined about 4.5% peak-to-close of market on August 17 – quite graduallly.

Since bottoming in October 2022, the market has climbed higher and higher, almost fully recovering the value lost during 2022, with short periods of volatility during downturns.

Not a lot has changed in the market over the last week, although we had a pretty nasty 80% down day yesterday. Volume was low however, despite the fact that a lot of stocks were down.

The indices have taken off so far in 2023. But returns are not what they seem beneath the surface.

S&P 500 breaks out and year-to-date returns look healthy. But there is still a lot of weakness underneath the surface.

Ignore the 4.9% year-over-year inflation rate. The month-over-month rate is the best measure of current inflation and it remains stubbornly high. Recession or not, volatility likely still lingers because small caps continue to underperform.

The stress in the financial sector has not receded. But earnings so far, are coming in better than expected for the first quarter of 2023.

Mixed signals continue to baffle market strategists as the market awaits clear direction from either the bulls or the bears.

Inflation eases, banking failures subside, and recession fears ease. But the odds of more rate hikes continue to increase.

Bank failures, high inflation, possible recession… Yet the S&P 500 is actually showing fairly strong price action. What’s going on?